~ V L Renga Hriler
India rama hin sumdawngna thila harsatna a tlung mêk nia hriet a nia, amiruokchu, sorkar chun thu belchieng dâwl lo tiin an phat a nih. Hieng ang harsatna hi mipui mimir hriet thei dingin dam te tein a hung inlang pei a nih. Economist ṭhenkhat hril danin India chun Financial Crisis (sum-le-pai harsatna) a hmasuon mêk niin an hril a. Hi financial crisis lei hin recession tlung thei ding niin an hril bawk. Recession hi ei ṭawng chun “kiemna, tawl kîrna” tia inlet thei a nih. A umzie chu fâk le dâwn zawngna (economy) hma sâwn loin, a tlahnuoi ti inla indiktak dingin ring a um. Economy thla 6 vel sung insang tieng pan lova a tlahnuoi lei a ni hlak. Recession umna san chu GDP (thil siemsuok le thawsuok sum thila inkhina) a tlahnuoia, Income a tlahnuoia, sinthar zawm ding a tlahnuoia, thil siem le a zawrna a tlahnuoi. April-June 2019 thla sunga India economy inṭhang dan chu kum ruk (6 yrs) sunga economy inṭhanga a lan hnuoitak niin National Statistic Org (NSO) chun a hril. Hi hun sung hin 5% chauin anṭhanga, Jan-Mar 2019 khan 5.8% chauin anṭhang bawk. A umzie chu GDP a tlahnuoi pei tina a nih. Mamaw thil ngenna (demand) le sumpui sukpungna dinga sum hmang (investment) a tlahnuoi lei niin an hril.
Tuta harstnat um mêk hi vêlkhatna (first round) a ngai thei a nih. A tlakhnuoi dan le thil tlahnuoi mêk ṭhenkhathai:-
Bank hai NPA (Non Performing Asset – hmun le hmang amani, sumpui thawsuok nei ta lo) a pung pei. NPA hi chi dang dang a um: agriculture loan amani, farm loan a ni chun a lo rasuok vel hni sunga (2 crop seasons) loan thung a ni naw chun a sumpuiin umzie a nei ta naw leiin chu chu NPA a nih. A tawi zawngin sumdawngna dinga bank loan lak, thung let mumal ta lo ti inla indik tak a tih. (Sumdawngna ei ti hin thil zawr hlawk tiengpang ni loin, industry amani sum hnâr ding thil siem - assets hieng buildings, etc a kâwk a nih). Sumpui a um naw chun sumdawngna thar (fresh investment) a um thei ta naw a nih. Hi lei hin bank-in thil thar thawna ding sumpui an peksuok nuom ta naw a nih.
Tuhin inbawltu (builders) tamtakin an in bawlsahai an chaw tu ding an hmu zo ta naw leiin zawr thei lo tamtak (unit) an nei a nih. Hi kakhâwk chu in bawl tieng a tlahnuoia, chuong ang peiin steel, cement, thir le inbâwlna ding thuohnaw dang dang zawr a tlahnuoi bawk. Khingtieng panga bank sum hmanga sinthawtuhaiin sum an rul kîr thei mumal naw leiin bank NPA a pung tiel tiel a, sum inpeipung ding angin an peipung thei ta naw a nih. Hi NPA hi company el chau ni lo mimal sumdawngna chen a them leiin hi buoia hin a fe inthûk deu deu a nih.
India rama thil la tlung ngai lo motor ke pahni nei (two wheeler) zawr khawm tlakhnuoi tieng a pan mêk a nih. Chuong ang bawkin ke pali nei (four wheeler) khawm a tlahnuoi mêk deu deu bawk. Motor tienga sumdawnghaiin an dawrhai an khar mêk a, Maruti company khawmin a motor siem 50% deu thawin a suk tlâwm a nih. A ka khâwk chu motor siemna hmangruo steel, thir, tyre-rubber le a dang dang siem le zawr dam te tein a tlahnuoi a nih. Hi thil le inzawm hin Finance Minister Smt Nirmala Sitharaman chun “tulai ṭhangtharhai nuom dan chu (millenial mindsets), instalment a 4 wheelers inchawk neikin Ola, Uber cab a chuong an thlang lem a, hi leia hi car, bike etc zawr (sale) a tlahnuoi a nih” a ti chu selkaltu pawl le economist ṭhenkhathai dem le sawisêl a hlaw hle. Motor part siemtuhai hi Non Banking Financial Sector haiin loan an pek deutak hlak a, tuhin loan an pêk nuom ta naw leiin factory ṭhenkhat khâr ṭan mêk a nih.
Khi a chunga ei hril pathumhai chau tlakhnuoia khawm khin nasatakin fak-le-dawn zawngna a nghawr nghîng thei a nih. Sin (job) sang tamtak suktawp ngai a ta, sorkar sie (tax) dâwl khawm a tlahnuoi pha ding a nih. Hieng ang huna hin sorkar beidawngin a sum inhmang suk bitna dingin sie (tax) sukpung amani, sie dâwl theina thil po poa dâwl a tum hlak a nih. Chun, sorkar thil nei (asset) hai chu company lien, an ditsak deuhai kuomah zawr an ta, sienkhawm, sorkar chu hlawk nêkin a sumpui anhmang belsap pei lem ding a nih. Tu khawm hin sorkar chun Air India le Public Sector tamtak zawr a tum mêk nia hriet a nih.
Hienghai baka hin recession hin Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) khawm a nghawng ṭan mêk a nih. India ram khawte (rural area) ah hai chun sabon, hanawtna hlo (tooth paste), sahriek (hair oil), biscuits le a dang dang demand a tlahnuoi hrat hlea hriet a nih. Tulaia FMGC company inṭhang hrat êm êm el Patanjali khawm 2018 khan 10% revenue (sum hlawk) a tlahnuoi a, nitdang laia Tv le News paper ah hai advertisement thaw zing zing hlak kha tu hin chu hmu ding a um ta nawh.
Thil siemna (industries) dang danghiin an thil siemhai demand a tlahnuoi leia an siemsuok tlawm leiin thuomhnaw phurna sin (transport) nasatakin a nghawng bawk a nih. Indian Foundation of Transport Research & Training-hai hril dan chun 2018 sung khan thuomhnaw phur truck hire khawm 15% deu thawin a tlahnuoi a nih. Hi kakhawk ding chu truck neituhai (transporters)-in sumdawngna (business) in ṭanna amani, suklienna dinga an loan lakhai ṭhatakin an thung theinaw ding a nih.
Mithiemhai hril dan chun recession hi 2020 March thla lai khin hung inlang ṭan a tih tiin an hril. India ram mitam lemin hi hi thil hi an hrietnaw el chau ni loin an la hriet thiem phâk naw a nih tiin an hril bawk. Ei hriet thiem thei nawk zuolna dingin kum 2008 – 09 khan USA ah recession râpthlâk tak el a tlunga, hi kum hin mi nuoi sawmkuo panga (95 lakh) vêlin an sin an chân a, USA rama investment bank lientak palina Lehman Brothers chu a tlusie (bankrupt) dêr bawk. Economist-hai chun kum 2020 / 2021 khin Global Recession, thil dang dang leiin a tlung ding niin an hril bawk.
Ei ni NE India a um, abikin ram kilkhawra um; India budget khawm la ngaiven phâk lohai ta ding chun recession ei hmasuon mêk hi thil ngaimaw um bêk bêk niin an lang nawh. Asan chu, sumdawng hausa (capitalist), industries, le sin thawna (employment) tam tham pe thei ding company lien an la um ve naw leiin a mi nghawng dân a chi dang a tih. Amiruokchu, khawpuia sinthaw, sin lien tham ninaw sienkhawm, ei ṭhahnem ve ta leiin recession hin annihai hi a nghawng ve thei a nih. Chuleiin, sum hmang dânhai fimkhur a ṭul takzet. Inret taka hmanga, dit le mamaw thlîr thiema, sin thaw loa thla ruk chen khawm khawsak theina dinga sum lo sieṭhat ṭhâng a tih. Chun, investment dang dang hieng SIP, property, etc thaw lo a ṭhaa, loan lâk amani, credit card hmanghai insûm hrâm hrâm tum ding a nih. Company thar inṭhang mekhai hi hiengtik huna hin an tlusie awl bîk leiin hlaw tam offer-hai sien cheu khawm company hluna um kha a ṭha lem. In veng fimkhur ding ti leiin ṭi ding chu a um nawh. Asan chu, recession hin kum khat le a chanve a aw tlangpuia, chuong chun economy ama invirin a pangngâi a hung aw nawk el hlak. Chun, tuhin sawrkar chun siemṭhat dan ngaituoin hma a lâk mêk a nih.
India rama hin sumdawngna thila harsatna a tlung mêk nia hriet a nia, amiruokchu, sorkar chun thu belchieng dâwl lo tiin an phat a nih. Hieng ang harsatna hi mipui mimir hriet thei dingin dam te tein a hung inlang pei a nih. Economist ṭhenkhat hril danin India chun Financial Crisis (sum-le-pai harsatna) a hmasuon mêk niin an hril a. Hi financial crisis lei hin recession tlung thei ding niin an hril bawk. Recession hi ei ṭawng chun “kiemna, tawl kîrna” tia inlet thei a nih. A umzie chu fâk le dâwn zawngna (economy) hma sâwn loin, a tlahnuoi ti inla indiktak dingin ring a um. Economy thla 6 vel sung insang tieng pan lova a tlahnuoi lei a ni hlak. Recession umna san chu GDP (thil siemsuok le thawsuok sum thila inkhina) a tlahnuoia, Income a tlahnuoia, sinthar zawm ding a tlahnuoia, thil siem le a zawrna a tlahnuoi. April-June 2019 thla sunga India economy inṭhang dan chu kum ruk (6 yrs) sunga economy inṭhanga a lan hnuoitak niin National Statistic Org (NSO) chun a hril. Hi hun sung hin 5% chauin anṭhanga, Jan-Mar 2019 khan 5.8% chauin anṭhang bawk. A umzie chu GDP a tlahnuoi pei tina a nih. Mamaw thil ngenna (demand) le sumpui sukpungna dinga sum hmang (investment) a tlahnuoi lei niin an hril.
Tuta harstnat um mêk hi vêlkhatna (first round) a ngai thei a nih. A tlakhnuoi dan le thil tlahnuoi mêk ṭhenkhathai:-
Bank hai NPA (Non Performing Asset – hmun le hmang amani, sumpui thawsuok nei ta lo) a pung pei. NPA hi chi dang dang a um: agriculture loan amani, farm loan a ni chun a lo rasuok vel hni sunga (2 crop seasons) loan thung a ni naw chun a sumpuiin umzie a nei ta naw leiin chu chu NPA a nih. A tawi zawngin sumdawngna dinga bank loan lak, thung let mumal ta lo ti inla indik tak a tih. (Sumdawngna ei ti hin thil zawr hlawk tiengpang ni loin, industry amani sum hnâr ding thil siem - assets hieng buildings, etc a kâwk a nih). Sumpui a um naw chun sumdawngna thar (fresh investment) a um thei ta naw a nih. Hi lei hin bank-in thil thar thawna ding sumpui an peksuok nuom ta naw a nih.
Tuhin inbawltu (builders) tamtakin an in bawlsahai an chaw tu ding an hmu zo ta naw leiin zawr thei lo tamtak (unit) an nei a nih. Hi kakhâwk chu in bawl tieng a tlahnuoia, chuong ang peiin steel, cement, thir le inbâwlna ding thuohnaw dang dang zawr a tlahnuoi bawk. Khingtieng panga bank sum hmanga sinthawtuhaiin sum an rul kîr thei mumal naw leiin bank NPA a pung tiel tiel a, sum inpeipung ding angin an peipung thei ta naw a nih. Hi NPA hi company el chau ni lo mimal sumdawngna chen a them leiin hi buoia hin a fe inthûk deu deu a nih.
India rama thil la tlung ngai lo motor ke pahni nei (two wheeler) zawr khawm tlakhnuoi tieng a pan mêk a nih. Chuong ang bawkin ke pali nei (four wheeler) khawm a tlahnuoi mêk deu deu bawk. Motor tienga sumdawnghaiin an dawrhai an khar mêk a, Maruti company khawmin a motor siem 50% deu thawin a suk tlâwm a nih. A ka khâwk chu motor siemna hmangruo steel, thir, tyre-rubber le a dang dang siem le zawr dam te tein a tlahnuoi a nih. Hi thil le inzawm hin Finance Minister Smt Nirmala Sitharaman chun “tulai ṭhangtharhai nuom dan chu (millenial mindsets), instalment a 4 wheelers inchawk neikin Ola, Uber cab a chuong an thlang lem a, hi leia hi car, bike etc zawr (sale) a tlahnuoi a nih” a ti chu selkaltu pawl le economist ṭhenkhathai dem le sawisêl a hlaw hle. Motor part siemtuhai hi Non Banking Financial Sector haiin loan an pek deutak hlak a, tuhin loan an pêk nuom ta naw leiin factory ṭhenkhat khâr ṭan mêk a nih.
Khi a chunga ei hril pathumhai chau tlakhnuoia khawm khin nasatakin fak-le-dawn zawngna a nghawr nghîng thei a nih. Sin (job) sang tamtak suktawp ngai a ta, sorkar sie (tax) dâwl khawm a tlahnuoi pha ding a nih. Hieng ang huna hin sorkar beidawngin a sum inhmang suk bitna dingin sie (tax) sukpung amani, sie dâwl theina thil po poa dâwl a tum hlak a nih. Chun, sorkar thil nei (asset) hai chu company lien, an ditsak deuhai kuomah zawr an ta, sienkhawm, sorkar chu hlawk nêkin a sumpui anhmang belsap pei lem ding a nih. Tu khawm hin sorkar chun Air India le Public Sector tamtak zawr a tum mêk nia hriet a nih.
Hienghai baka hin recession hin Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) khawm a nghawng ṭan mêk a nih. India ram khawte (rural area) ah hai chun sabon, hanawtna hlo (tooth paste), sahriek (hair oil), biscuits le a dang dang demand a tlahnuoi hrat hlea hriet a nih. Tulaia FMGC company inṭhang hrat êm êm el Patanjali khawm 2018 khan 10% revenue (sum hlawk) a tlahnuoi a, nitdang laia Tv le News paper ah hai advertisement thaw zing zing hlak kha tu hin chu hmu ding a um ta nawh.
Thil siemna (industries) dang danghiin an thil siemhai demand a tlahnuoi leia an siemsuok tlawm leiin thuomhnaw phurna sin (transport) nasatakin a nghawng bawk a nih. Indian Foundation of Transport Research & Training-hai hril dan chun 2018 sung khan thuomhnaw phur truck hire khawm 15% deu thawin a tlahnuoi a nih. Hi kakhawk ding chu truck neituhai (transporters)-in sumdawngna (business) in ṭanna amani, suklienna dinga an loan lakhai ṭhatakin an thung theinaw ding a nih.
Mithiemhai hril dan chun recession hi 2020 March thla lai khin hung inlang ṭan a tih tiin an hril. India ram mitam lemin hi hi thil hi an hrietnaw el chau ni loin an la hriet thiem phâk naw a nih tiin an hril bawk. Ei hriet thiem thei nawk zuolna dingin kum 2008 – 09 khan USA ah recession râpthlâk tak el a tlunga, hi kum hin mi nuoi sawmkuo panga (95 lakh) vêlin an sin an chân a, USA rama investment bank lientak palina Lehman Brothers chu a tlusie (bankrupt) dêr bawk. Economist-hai chun kum 2020 / 2021 khin Global Recession, thil dang dang leiin a tlung ding niin an hril bawk.
Ei ni NE India a um, abikin ram kilkhawra um; India budget khawm la ngaiven phâk lohai ta ding chun recession ei hmasuon mêk hi thil ngaimaw um bêk bêk niin an lang nawh. Asan chu, sumdawng hausa (capitalist), industries, le sin thawna (employment) tam tham pe thei ding company lien an la um ve naw leiin a mi nghawng dân a chi dang a tih. Amiruokchu, khawpuia sinthaw, sin lien tham ninaw sienkhawm, ei ṭhahnem ve ta leiin recession hin annihai hi a nghawng ve thei a nih. Chuleiin, sum hmang dânhai fimkhur a ṭul takzet. Inret taka hmanga, dit le mamaw thlîr thiema, sin thaw loa thla ruk chen khawm khawsak theina dinga sum lo sieṭhat ṭhâng a tih. Chun, investment dang dang hieng SIP, property, etc thaw lo a ṭhaa, loan lâk amani, credit card hmanghai insûm hrâm hrâm tum ding a nih. Company thar inṭhang mekhai hi hiengtik huna hin an tlusie awl bîk leiin hlaw tam offer-hai sien cheu khawm company hluna um kha a ṭha lem. In veng fimkhur ding ti leiin ṭi ding chu a um nawh. Asan chu, recession hin kum khat le a chanve a aw tlangpuia, chuong chun economy ama invirin a pangngâi a hung aw nawk el hlak. Chun, tuhin sawrkar chun siemṭhat dan ngaituoin hma a lâk mêk a nih.
